Mid-Year Check-In: What the 2025 Market Has Taught Us So Far (Jan–Jul)
david horine • July 7, 2025
As we cross the midpoint of 2025, it's clear that the real estate landscape has shifted significantly. Here's a look at what we've learned from January through July—and what you should prepare for in Q3 and Q4.
1. 📉 Slower Price Growth & Softening Momentum
- Home prices have cooled: National y‑o‑y price growth slowed from 5% last May to just 1.8% in May 2025—the slowest pace since winter 2012.
- Regional disparities: Some Sun Belt areas are dipping, while select Midwestern and Northeast markets continue to show modest gains.
2. 🏠 Rising Inventory, More Negotiating Leverage
- National supply rebound: Listings have increased 19 months in a row, now 30% higher than last year.
- Buyer-friendly conditions emerging: Price cuts are rising—19% of sellers reduced prices in May, the highest level since 2016.
- Local builder retreat: Homebuilder sentiment hit a 2½-year low, with 37% cutting prices to attract buyers.
3. 💸 Mortgage Rates Trending Down
- Encouraging signs: Rates have declined modestly—from 6.77% to 6.67% in early July.
- Forecast outlook: Expect modest rate stabilization around 6–7% through year-end; mid‑year rate cuts possible .
4. 🏘️ Buyers in Control (…sometimes)
- First-time buyers on hold: Driven away by affordability issues, they're increasingly missing from the market.
- Institutional & luxury strength: Landlords and high-cash luxury buyers are filling the gap—but demand below the top tiers is softening.
5. 🧭 Demographic & Strategic Shifts
- Changing buyer profiles: Lower birth rates and delayed family formation mean more single and older buyers, who favor flexible and small-home designs.
- Balanced for 2025: Experts expect national home prices to remain mostly flat through Q3, with possible slight declines by year-end.
🔮 What to Expect in Q3 & Q4
Buyers
- Use rising leverage: More inventory and price flexibility mean better deals—don’t rush.
- Lock in rates wisely: With rates stabilizing, now may be a good time—but monitor Fed signals.
- Explore high-growth regions: Top markets remain in Midwest and parts of the Coast—analyze local trends .
Sellers
- Price strategically: Homes priced correctly for current comps will still move—those priced too high may linger and require reductions.
- Refresh staging & marketing: Pleasant presentation can create urgency in a more competitive market.
- Be open to concessions: Mortgage buydowns or flexible terms may win over hesitant buyers
🧭 Bottom Line
Mid‑2025 has taught us that the real estate market is settling into a more balanced—and sometimes buyer‑favored—state. Price growth is subdued, supply is improving, and mortgage rates remain high but stable.
As we head into the back half of the year, success rests on adaptability: buyers can leverage lower prices and more options; sellers should focus on realistic pricing and thoughtful terms. This shift signals opportunity—for those ready to prepare for the changes.
RESOURCES:
Investing in real estate during the second half of 2025? It’s a smart move—but success comes from strategy. Here's how to build wealth thoughtfully with a diversified portfolio, passive income, and savvy tax planning:
If you’re planning to buy a home in June 2025—especially in a high-demand area like South Florida—you’re not alone. Inventory is gradually improving, but buyer competition remains strong in many price points and neighborhoods. To stand out, you’ll need more than just interest—you’ll need strategy. Here’s how to get ahead of the competition and land the home you want.
If you’re a homeowner wondering whether to list your property now or hold off until fall, you're not alone. In today’s fast-changing real estate climate, especially in places like South Florida, timing can play a big role in how much you make — and how fast you sell. Let’s break down the pros and cons of selling in the summer vs. waiting until fall in 2025. 🌞 Selling This Summer: The Pros 1. Peak Buyer Activity Summer is traditionally one of the hottest seasons for homebuyers. Families often time their move around school calendars, and with lighter work schedules, buyers are more likely to attend showings. 🏡 According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), homes listed in May and June sell faster and for more money than in any other months of the year. 2. Longer Days = More Showings Extended daylight hours give your listing more exposure — literally. Better lighting means your home looks more inviting in photos and during in-person tours. 3. Curb Appeal at Its Peak Your home looks its best during the summer. Lush landscaping, blooming flowers, and blue skies naturally boost curb appeal and help buyers envision themselves living there. 4. Less Competition (in Some Markets) While summer is busy, some sellers still wait until fall — meaning you could face less competition in certain neighborhoods. 🍂 Waiting Until Fall: The Pros 1. More Serious Buyers Fall buyers tend to be motivated. Whether it’s job relocation, downsizing, or investment opportunities, these shoppers usually aren’t just browsing — they’re ready to move. 2. Potential Interest Rate Drops Economists expect mortgage rates to ease slightly by late 2025 as inflation stabilizes. If that happens, more buyers may re-enter the market, giving your listing more traction. 3. Back-to-School = Less Buyer Distraction By the time September rolls around, vacations are over, and school has started. Buyers may be more focused and ready to make quick decisions.
As of mid-2025, Southeast Florida's housing market is experiencing a complex landscape influenced by elevated mortgage rates, shifting buyer demand, and evolving inventory dynamics. Here's an overview of the current trends and projections: AP News , Counselors of Realtors , Kiplinger , Miami Realtors , WSJ , Miami Realtors 📈 Market Forecast: 2024–2025 Home Prices : The Miami Association of Realtors projects that home sales prices will increase by 6.9% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. The median single-family sales price is expected to accelerate to 9.7%, while the condominium/townhome median sales price is anticipated to rise modestly by 2.5% due to potential higher fees and assessments affecting demand for this property type. MIAMI REALTORS® Sales Volume : Existing home sales are likely to decline by 5.5% in 2024. However, falling mortgage rates, rising job growth, and improving affordability conditions are expected to expand home sales by 4.0% in 2025. MIAMI REALTORS® Mortgage Rates : Projections indicate that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will decline to 6.6% by the end of 2024 and 5.7% by the end of 2025, as the Federal Reserve is poised to cut rates multiple times. MIAMI REALTORS® MIAMI REALTORS® 🏠 Market Conditions by Property Type Single-Family Homes : The single-family homes market remains a seller’s market, with a 4-month supply across all counties as of May 2024. MIAMI REALTORS® Condominiums/Townhomes : The condominium/townhomes market is experiencing balanced demand-supply conditions, with active inventory equivalent to over a 6-month supply. MIAMI REALTORS® MIAMI REALTORS® 🔍 Key Market Dynamics Affordability Challenges : As of December 2024, only 17% of renter households in Southeast Florida could afford a mortgage, down from 41% in 2019. MIAMI REALTORS® , MIAMI REALTORS® , Counselors of Realtors Luxury Market Growth : Homes priced at $1 million or over are gaining market share. Year-to-date through May 2024, the share of million-dollar single-family homes has sharply increased compared to 2019 in Miami-Dade (23% vs. 7%), Broward County (18% vs. 5%), Palm Beach (25% vs. 5%), Martin County (21% vs. 8%), and St. Lucie (2% vs. 0.3%). MIAMI REALTORS®
As a homeowner in South Florida, June is a crucial time to focus on maintenance tasks that help your home withstand the intense summer heat and humidity. Here's a tailored checklist to help you stay on top of home maintenance:
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If you're a seasonal buyer or snowbird considering a vacation home in South Florida, May 2025 presents a strategic opportunity. Here's why acting now can benefit you:
🏡 St. Lucie County Market Insight The St. Lucie County real estate market shows signs of shifting toward a more balanced—if not buyer-leaning—environment. Both the single-family and condo/townhouse segments are feeling the impact of longer days on market and increased inventory. 🏠 Single-Family Homes Sales slowed slightly with closed sales down 2.6% year-over-year. However, pricing remained stable: Median sale price: $392,000 (+0.50%) Average sale price: $449,454 (+2.50%) Dollar volume dropped to $520 million** (–10.40%) Homes are taking significantly longer to sell, with median time to contract rising 46% and time to sale jumping 23%. Meanwhile, inventory rose 41.3%, bringing the months supply to 6.3—a 50% increase, signaling more choices and leverage for buyers. 🏢 Condos & Townhomes The condo market experienced a sharper decline, with: Closed sales down 15.5% Cash deals down 20.7% Median price down to $310,000 (–3.00%) Dollar volume dropped 15.8% Days on market are significantly longer, with median time to contract up 32% and median time to sale up 30%. Inventory surged 31–53%, boosting months supply to 11.7 months, indicating a strong buyer’s market. 🧭 What This Means for You Buyers: Expect more room to negotiate with rising inventory and more days on market—especially for condos. Sellers: Be strategic—homes are selling, but they’re taking longer. Accurate pricing and staging are more important than ever. Investors: Condo prices have dipped, and inventory is high—this could be your moment to buy low. 📬 Need help timing your next move in St. Lucie? Let’s connect today.
📍 Palm Beach County Market Insight The Palm Beach real estate market continued its transition in March, reflecting increased inventory across both single-family homes and condos/townhouses. While overall sales activity has slowed, pricing resilience and rising inventory suggest a shifting landscape toward more balanced market conditions. Single-Family Homes Sales activity slightly decreased with closed sales down 1.7% year-over-year and cash deals falling 7.2%, indicating a moderation in buyer urgency. Despite this, prices held firm—median sale price rose 5.2% to $647,000 and average sale price surged 22.6%, boosted by high-value transactions. Inventory has grown notably—up 23.5%, giving buyers more options and easing pressure on bidding wars. Homes are taking longer to sell, with median time to contract rising 31.6% to 50 days. New pending sales dipped 4.6%, signaling a more cautious buyer pool. Overall, the months of supply increased to 5.7 months, showing momentum toward a more balanced market. Condos & Townhouses This segment saw a sharper pullback in demand, with closed sales down 8.6% and cash deals off 8.2%. However, pricing remains resilient: median sale price increased 6.6% and average price rose 14.2%, pointing to enduring value in the condo market. Homes are taking longer to sell, with median time to contract increasing 54.5% to 68 days. Pending inventory jumped 32.4%, while new pending sales dropped 17.7%, suggesting a strong buyer’s market emerging. The months of supply climbed to 10.6 months, reinforcing that buyers now hold greater leverage. 🔑 Key Takeaway: Palm Beach County’s housing market is leaning toward a buyer-friendly direction. Sellers should focus on competitive pricing and strategic marketing to stand out in a growing inventory environment, while buyers may find improved negotiating power and more choices as the spring season progresses.
Martin County Real Estate Market Insights As of the latest market update, Martin County continues to experience a notable market shift — with cooling buyer activity, rising inventory, and longer days on market, especially in the condo/townhouse segment. 🏠 Single-Family Homes The single-family market saw a modest decline in sales activity with closed sales down 3.5% year-over-year. However, values remained strong: Median sale price increased to $595,500 (+7.10%) Average sale price surged to $1,165,175 (+26.50%) Dollar volume climbed to $510.5 million, a 22% increase Despite fewer cash buyers (-3.5%), seller confidence stayed high, with a slight drop in the median percentage of list price received to 93.5%. Inventory grew by 45.4%, giving buyers more negotiating power. The month supply of inventory now sits at 6.2 months, up 47.6%, indicating a shift toward a more balanced market. 🏢 Condos & Townhomes The condo/townhouse segment experienced a sharper slowdown: Closed sales fell 16.1%, and cash deals dropped 8.9% Median sale price declined to $265,000 (–9.40%) Dollar volume fell by 21.7% Homes are sitting on the market longer, with median time to contract rising 81% and time to sale extending 28%. Inventory jumped 50.8%, while pending inventory fell 17.9%, making this a clearly buyer-friendly environment. 🧭 What This Means for You Buyers: You now have more leverage and a broader selection, particularly in the condo market. Sellers: Be prepared for more competition and longer market times—pricing right from the start is key. Investors: Watch the condo segment—lower prices and longer days on market could create opportunity. 📬 Need help navigating this market? Let’s talk strategy today.
